THE STATES
While the Republicans got a bunch of early state polls this morning, there hasn’t been a release for the Democrats. After a quiet Saturday we got two national polls today that paint a similar picture of the race.
NATIONAL
ABC/Washington Post
Clinton 60
Sanders 34
O’Malley 3
Clinton has to feel good about being at 60%, but this poll has some good news for Sanders. In their last poll, conducted shortly after the first Democratic debate, the numbers without Joe Biden were actually much better for Clinton- she was up 64-25. A 39 point race has become a 26 point race as Sanders has gobbled up some of those undecideds and perhaps eaten into Clinton’s numbers a bit. That said, there is one major troubling number for Sanders here- 97. As in, 97% of people expressed a preference here, meaning the room to grow at this point comes almost entirely from peeling off Clinton supporters. Other polling has shown that Clinton’s supporters are more committed, with more than half of Sanders’ supporters willing open to changing their minds, while more than half of Clinton’s have made up their minds.
FOX News
Clinton 55
Sanders 32
O’Malley 3
The numbers here tell a pretty similar story to the other poll in terms of a snapshot of the race. Clinton and Sanders both do a bit worse here, but the 23 point race is not really different than the 26 point race ABC found. FOX’s last poll is more recent, from the beginning of November, and finds basically no change- it was 56-31-2. Their poll before that was from a similar period as the other ABC poll, showed a 54-28 race with Biden excluded.
THE HISTORY
There have been many comparisons made to this race and the 2008 nominating contest. At this point in 2008 in national polling through all of November 2007, Clinton led Obama by an average of just over 19 points. Through all November polling this year, Clinton leads by just over 24. While Sanders's 31.25 November average is significantly better than Obama’s 22.9, the real difference is that Clinton’s 55.5 this year is much stronger than her 42.2 support in November 2007.
The other major difference between these two elections is immediately apparent- in November of 2007, Clinton and Obama accounted for just 65% of the primary votes- the remaining were undecided or supporting another candidate. This time around, Clinton and Sanders account for 87% of the vote together. If every O'Malley supporter and undecided voter went for Sanders, Clinton would still lead by double digits.
In the states, the difference was starker. In November of 2007, Clinton led Obama in Iowa by an average of just 1.5%, and Obama had actually taken the lead in several polls towards the middle and end of the month. This year in Iowa, we have just two polls completed in November (and both started at the end of October) but Clinton leads by an average of 25 between them. Sanders has only led in two polls in Iowa the entire cycle, both in early September.
In New Hampshire, Clinton led in November by 12 points. This November, she leads by nearly 8, but that is with a fairly implausible Gravis poll giving her a 21 point lead. Without that poll, she would lead by one point. Polling right before the primary showed an impending Obama win, but Clinton ended up carrying the state by 2.6%.
The difference in these two states is clearly one of trajectory. In 2008, President Obama was gaining on Clinton in Iowa, while Sanders appears to be slipping this year. In New Hampshire, Clinton led regularly until after the Iowa caucuses- yet she ended up winning. Sanders is moving in the wrong direction if he wants to replicate Obama’s surprise win there, and New Hampshire is a coin flip right now that may end up surprising us no matter what the polls say.
In 2004, Dean led in November, but was within 5 points of 3 other candidates. The field resembled the Republican field more than the current one, at least in terms of fractured support.
The most interesting comparison is probably 2000. Some have compared this race to the 2000 nominating race. Polling data is much more scarce, but we do know that in November of 1999, Gore led Bradley 58-33 nationally. That’s very, very similar to the current state of the race. Clinton seems to have quasi-incumbent status, and Sanders is doing very well with white liberals while having trouble breaking through in the South.
No election is a perfect analogue to another, but the closest precedent we have for the current race appears to be the 2000 primary.