National Numbers- The Race Remains Steady after Clinton Wins Debate- Today in Primary Polling

THE STATES

So far, there is no state polling released today that I have seen. I will update as we see anything.

THE DEBATE

Huffpost/YouGov released a poll this week performed in the aftermath of Saturday’s Democratic debate. They broke the numbers out a few ways-

But among Democratic voters who saw at least clips or highlights of the debate, 49 percent named Clinton the winner, with 22 percent naming Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 5 percent naming Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, and 23 percent saying that nobody won or that they're not sure who performed the best. Those who watched part or all of the debate named Clinton the winner over Sanders by a wider, 40-point margin.

Sanders performed significantly better among those who watched coverage of the debate, but among those who actually watched some or all of the debate itself Clinton dominated. This may be in part because the groups who actually watched the debate (African Americans and older voters) overwhelmingly support Clinton in the nominating race itself. Overall the results track fairly closely with voters’ support of the candidates- meaning that the debate was not the game changer that Clinton’s challengers needed.

There were some differences in terms of policy-

The event did, though, underscore some of the policy differences between the candidates. Foreign policy, which was mentioned prominently in Saturday's discussion, is an area of strength for Clinton. A majority of all Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they trust Clinton the most to handle foreign policy and the fight against the Islamic State group, with fewer than one-fifth preferring Sanders on either topic.

Sanders, who criticized Clinton's reliance on Wall Street donors, holds a modest advantage on that issue, with Democratic voters saying by a 9-point margin that they're more likely to trust him than Clinton to deal with Wall Street and big banks.

NATIONAL

Bloomberg

Clinton 55

Sanders 30

O’Malley 3

Clinton’s 25 point lead is a great deal better than her 8 point lead in the last poll- but that one was in the middle of September, and Biden was at 25 points himself in it. Clinton is up 22 points from that poll, Sanders is up 6, and O’Malley is up 2.  The last poll did not include second choices or numbers without Biden. These numbers are right in the region of the national RCP average, which is Clinton 55, Sanders 32.

NBC/Survey Monkey

Clinton 49

Sanders 33

O’Malley 1

This poll has tended to show a closer race than others throughout the race. Clinton is down one point from their last poll (at the end of October) and Sanders is up 3. While that is a four point net swing from the last poll, the overall trend from them is growing Clinton support as Sanders stays steady. They’ve put out four polls since mid September.

(These polls are not included on RCP average, and RCP does not allow you to check past averages)

The NBC/SurveyMonkey polls have consistently shown a much closer race than the running averages, generally showing similar numbers for Sanders to other pollsters but much lower ones for Clinton. This is not to say that this poll is wrong and others are right, but it is worth noting that the last poll showing Clinton below 50 was also a SurveyMonkey poll (done in concert with UCLA rather than NBC) at the end of October. Interestingly, NBC released two polls at the end of October- the SurveyMonkey one and one with Wall Street Journal. That poll was 62-31, an 11 point net difference from their own poll released at the same time.

Note: Contrary to the claims of a diary currently on the rec list, this poll clearly does NOT show Sanders steadily eating into Clinton’s lead. It shows Clinton steadily expanding her lead through September and October, and a relatively small change in Sanders’s favor in the most recent poll. She has gained 8 points to Sanders’s 4 over the course of this poll’s history.