THE STATES
CBS/YouGov released polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina for the Democrats this morning (seriously, is EVERYONE scared to poll Nevada?) and there is great news across the board for Hillary Clinton.
Iowa
Clinton 50
Sanders 44
O’Malley 5
Why is this poll good news for Clinton despite her six point margin here being 2/3 smaller than her 18 point margin in the polling average? Because no poll lives in isolation, and we’re looking at the totality of the polling and the trendlines. This poll has ALWAYS been less favorable to Clinton than the other polling out, and it remains so. To be clear, this does not mean the poll is wrong, just that it needs to be looked at in the context of all the available information.
For that context, we can see that Clinton has actually DOUBLED her lead since their last poll in mid October, when she led Sanders 46-43. Their poll before THAT in early September actually had Sanders leading by 10, 33-43 (with Biden included at 10). In the end, this poll is telling the same story that the others are, just showing a different margin. Sanders is stuck in a rut in Iowa and has not been able to grow his support in almost three months. Clinton, on the other hand, has surged since winning the first two debates and Biden’s decision not to run. Clinton is up 17 points since early September, Sanders is up 1.
I think the next Selzer poll will give us better information on what the actual margin likely is at this point, but the trend is pretty clear- Clinton is ahead in Iowa and moving in the right direction.
New Hampshire
Sanders 52
Clinton 45
O’Malley 3
Once again, the margin looks a lot worse for Clinton than the average and the other recent polling, all of which has showed a close race, and most of which has showed Clinton ahead slightly. So is it “unskewy” to call this poll good news for Clinton in New Hampshire? Of course not- look at the trendlines again.
CBS/YouGov polled this race in October, as well, and found Sanders leading by a whopping 15 point margin, 54-39, right around the same time that most other polling showed Clinton pulling back into a small lead. Their September poll had him leading by a monster 22 points, 52-30, with Biden included at 9. Most other polling at the time showed a mid to high single digit lead for Sanders.
The trendlines are once again instructive- Sanders support is unchanged since the beginning of September (down a bit from last month) while Clinton has surged by 15 points. She’s cut Sanders’s lead by 2/3 in two months in one of the least friendly polls for her, with most other polling showing a surge in support that has brought her into a modest lead. The totality of the polling tells a story for Clinton in New Hampshire- the race is essentially tied, and Clinton is moving in the right direction going into the Holiday season once again.
South Carolina
Clinton 72
Sanders 25
O’Malley 2
Same story, different state. While this poll matches the averages more closely (Pollster sets the average at a73-22 Clinton advantage) the trendline stories are much the same.
In October, Clinton still had a healthy lead of 43 points (68-25) which was only a shade worse than her current lead of 48.
In September, with Biden included, Clinton led 46-23-22, a margin of “just” 23 points over Sanders.
Since then, Clinton’s numbers have shot up 26 points, while Sanders’s have moved 2. The story in South Carolina is slightly different- the margin has not changed drastically in Clinton’s favor over the last month, but she has solidified a commanding lead and held it steady since the run of good news she had over the last couple of months.
NATIONAL
Public Religion Research Institute (I have no idea, either)
11/6-11/10
Clinton 62
Sanders 29
O’Malley 2
The poll is a couple of weeks old already, but it broadly fits within the shape of the race- Clinton in mid 50s to low 60s, Sanders in mid 20s to low 30s, O’Malley still running. I have virtually no knowledge of the pollster. Having said that, they released another very strange poll today…
Public Religion Research Institute
9/11-10/4
Clinton 55
Biden 23
Sanders 17
Webb 1
O’Malley 0
Why they would release numbers that are almost two months old, and were in the field for nearly a month anyways, that include one candidate who has dropped out and another who was never running in the first place is beyond me. That said, another one to throw on the pile, I guess.