THE STATES
Iowa
CBS/YouGov (Fivethirtyeight rating C+)
Clinton 50
Sanders 45
O’Malley 4
The poll is basically unchanged from their poll last month, where Clinton led Sanders 50-44. The trend has to be troubling for Sanders, though, as this has been by far his best pollster in Iowa. Two months ago he was back by three, and three months ago he led Clinton by ten in Iowa (with Biden pulling 10%). Since September, Clinton is up 17 points while Sanders is up 2. While a one point improvement on the margin is hardly significant, it is good news for Sanders that the margin didn’t get worse for him as it has consistently since the fall.
This poll isn’t terribly different from the DMR/Selzer poll that had Clinton up 9, but has pretty consistently been the best poll for Sanders in the state. We’ll see if a better pollster finds a race this close going forward.
New Hampshire
CBS/YouGov (Fivethirtyeight rating C+)
Sanders 56
Clinton 42
O’Malley 1
In this poll, Sanders has seen some definite movement in his direction since last month, when he led 52-45. That said, we still see a similar pattern to YouGov’s Iowa polling when we look back a bit farther.
Sanders leads by 14 points in this poll after leading by seven in last month’s poll. Two months ago, though, he led by 15 points, and three months ago he had a whopping 22 point lead (with Biden included at 9%). Since September, Sanders is up 4 points while Clinton is up 12.
It is good news that he is up over the last month, but this very friendly poll has his lead shrinking significantly since the fall, outside of the margin of the Biden effect.
Other recent polls have tended to show Clinton cutting into Sanders’s support in New Hampshire (besides PPP) so we’ll have to see if other polls show Bernie strengthening his position here. In the meantime, we can put this one on the pile with a big grain of salt.
South Carolina
CBS/YouGov (Fivethirtyeight rating C+)
Clinton 67
Sanders 31
O’Malley 2
Somewhat oddly, the poll that shows him back by 36 points is the best result for Sanders out of the three YouGov polls. One month ago, Clinton led by 47 points, meaning Sanders’s 11 point improvement on the margin is the biggest movement he’s seen anywhere. Two months ago, Clinton led by 43, and three months ago Clinton led by just 23, with Biden pulling 22 points.
Since September, Clinton is up 44 points, Sanders is up 8, Clinton’s movement once again outpacing the Biden effect.
Sanders inability to increase his support among black voters remains, with his numbers being driven largely by nearly tying Clinton among white voters, while continuing to get blown out among nonwhite voters.
This pollster is the only one to ever show Sanders above 25% in South Carolina.
NATIONAL
Emerson College (Fivethirtyeight rating C+)
Clinton 65
Sanders 26
O'Malley 2
This is an improvement for Sanders over their poll two months ago when Clinton led 68-20. That said, this is now the 8th poll this month to show Sanders under 30%, and his average for December has slipped to 28%. He reached his all time high of 31.4% in the Pollster average the first day of the month and has been slipping since then. Thus, while we can find some overall good news for Sanders in this poll that has shown incredibly strong results for Clinton most of the time, the overall trend nationally has to be troubling for his campaign.
THE AVERAGES
Iowa
RCP: 52-37-5 (Clinton +15)
Pollster: 53-38-5 (Clinton +15)
New Hampshire
RCP: 43-51-1 (Sanders +8)
Pollster: 45-49-2 (Sanders +4)
South Carolina
RCP: 68-23-3 (Clinton +45)
Pollster: 69-28-2 (Clinton +41)
National
RCP: 56-31-4 (Clinton +25)
Pollster: 58-28-3 (Clinton +30)