THE STATES
New Hampshire
Franklin Pierce University (Fivethirtyeight Pollster Rating C-)
Clinton 46
Sanders 48
O’Malley 2
Sanders tiny two point lead is down from a ten point lead from their October poll.
Without Biden in the race, Sanders actually did slightly BETTER in October, where he led 48-38 (He led by 8, 38-30-19, with Biden in the race). That means that in the past two months Clinton has gained 8 points in a Biden-free race while Sanders has been stagnant.
This is not a particularly great pollster, earning a C- from Fivethirtyeight, but it is another in a set of data points that shows Clinton cutting into a Sanders lead in New Hampshire, and another that shows it has developed into a very close race since Clinton’s debate wins in October and her stellar performance in front of the Benghazi kangaroo committee.
NATIONAL
ABC/Washington Post (Fivethirtyeight Rating A-)
Clinton 59
Sanders 28
O’Malley 5
Not a great poll for Sanders. Not only is Clinton leading him by a greater than 2:1 margin, but he is down six points since mid November while Clinton is down just 1. Her 31 point (and expanding) lead in this well-respected poll is good news for her as we head into the holidays.
Public Policy Polling (Fivethirtyeight Rating B-)
Clinton 56
Sanders 28
O’Malley 9
This represents a slight improvement in Sanders’s fortunes over PPP’s last poll, released a month ago. Clinton is down 3 points, Sanders is up 2, shrinking Clinton’s lead by five.
Ipsos/Reuters (Fivethirtyeight Rating C+)
Clinton 58
Sanders 29
O'Malley 3
The "official" release of the Ipsos tracking poll has been released. It is a slight improvement for Clinton over their last release, when she lead 56-30. The poll has been extremely swingy all cycle. Despite the good news for Clinton, and despite it looking very similar to the much better ABC poll, I wouldn't put too much faith in what this poll says on any given day.
OVERALL: The main news in recent polling is that Clinton’s numbers have been creeping back towards the higher end of her spectrum while Sanders’s numbers have been moving slightly downward. In five of the eight non-internet polls released this month, Sanders has been at or below 30%. The same is true of 10 of 16 polls including internet based surveys. Clinton has been above 55 in five of eight, or 9 of 16.
THE AVERAGES
All numbers are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley
New Hampshire
RCP: 44-48-4 (Sanders +4)
Pollster: 46-47-3
National
RCP: 56-31-3 (Clinton +25)
Pollster: 56-29-3 (Clinton +27)
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