THE STATES
Nothing from the states so far today.
NATIONAL
Monmouth University (Fivethirtyeight rating A-)
Clinton 59
Sanders 26
O’Malley 4
Monmouth’s last national poll came about two months ago, and (in the Biden-free numbers) had Clinton up by an identical margin, 57-24. This poll has tended to be right in the wheelhouse for Clinton’s numbers while finding less support for Sanders than other contemporaneous polls, and it looks like a similar situation again. Either way, the poll is another piece of evidence that points to a fairly stable race since Clinton’s two debate wins, the Benghazi hearings, and Biden’s decision not to run.
Morning Consult (Unrated by Fivethirtyeight)
Clinton 52
Sanders 27
O’Malley 2
This poll represents a slight improvement for Sanders over the last week, as he increased by 4% since their 12/7 poll while Clinton remained flat at 52. This is another poll that has been in a reasonable range of other polls for Clinton’s support but has tended to fund lower support for Sanders (he has never been at or above 30% in either of the polls released today).
THE AVERAGES
All numbers are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley.
National
RCP: 55-31-3 (Clinton +24)
Pollster: 55-30-3 (Clinton +25)
THE HISTORY
Then numbers are the last five polls taken from November 17th, 2007 (47 days before the Iowa Caucuses). Now numbers are the last five polls taken starting today (47 days before the Iowa caucuses).
Then
Clinton 43
Obama 23
(Clinton +20)
Now
Clinton 56
Sanders 31
(Clinton +25)
Clinton has a healthier margin and better positioning this time around, with less than two months to go until the caucuses. Direct comparisons going forward might be a bit difficult because we’re about to go into the holidays and will emerge with a month until the caucuses. In 2007, the caucuses came just days after the New Year began. I’ve been keeping track of polling relative to the timing of the Iowa caucuses, which shook up the race a great deal in 2008, but that ignores the relative placement of other events, like holidays.
We’ll have to keep that in mind when it comes to any unexpected results or availability/scarcity of polling going forward.
For comparison, the "then” numbers starting from this date in 2007 would be 42-27, just a 15 point margin.