THE STATES
Iowa
Public Policy Polling (Fivethirtyeight rating B-)
Clinton 52
Sanders 34
O’Malley 7
While Clinton’s lead is twice what we see in the gold standard Selzer poll released yesterday, this is also a strong improvement for Sanders in the PPP poll (while he slipped slightly in Selzer’s). PPP’s last poll, released at the beginning of November, showed Clinton up 57-25. That’s a very impressive 14 point improvement on the margin for Sanders, but it comes with the caveat of being nearly twenty points behind going into the holidays.
In usual wonderful PPP fashion, we’ve got crosstabs that break up the electorate in nearly every way imaginable, and the news is pretty good for Clinton across the board. Sanders holds a fairly modest lead with younger voters under 45 (47-40) but is getting creamed with senior caucus goers (64-20) and losing among older voters aged 45 to 65 (57-29).
Clinton leads among Very Liberal (59-35), Somewhat Liberal (54-38) and Moderate (52-30) caucus goers. Sanders actually leads among Somewhat Conservative folks (45-28) and Very Conservative people favor O’Malley (58-23-9). The sample sizes for Somewhat Conservative and Very Conservative are quite small, however.
There is a slight gender gap, as Clinton leads among women by 21 points and among men by 15.
Sanders name recognition now sits at 88% (just 5% behind Hillary’s) and he is viewed slightly less favorably than her. She scores a +54 while Sanders has a +42 (and higher unfavorables).
Loras College (Unrated by Fivethirtyeight)
Clinton 59
Sanders 27
O'Malley 4
Similar story as above. Clinton's 32 point lead here is a LOT larger than what we saw from Selzer, but this poll is also an improvement for Sanders from their last poll near the end of October that showed Clinton leading by 38. A larger lead and a smaller shift, but another poll that showed an overwhelming lead for Clinton slipping rather than a more modest lead holding steady, as we saw yesterday.
Quinnipiac (Fivethirtyeight rating B+)
Clinton 51
Sanders 40
O’Malley 6
And here we see another example of Selzer’s Iowa. Clinton’s lead here is not nearly as large as the other polls, but it is actually up 2 points from their last poll where Clinton led 51-42. The demographics here are also very different- Clinton leads nearly 2:1 with women, but Sanders actually holds a lead among men (52-39).
Clinton maintains a lead in enthusiasm/commitment from her supporters. 71% of her supporters are firm in their commitment, while 27% might change their mind. 62% of Sanders supporters have made up their minds while 37% still might change their mind. These numbers could be key as 91% of caucus goers are already supporting Clinton or Sanders. Movement late in the game could prove key in determining the outcome, so locking in commitment from supporters is important.
The last Q poll was from the middle of November.
OVERALL
What’s the situation in Iowa? It is hard to say. We know that Clinton has a solid lead there. We can be pretty sure it is closer to what Selzer is seeing than the other pollsters with much larger leads. Has it been holding steady? Did it have a huge spike and is starting to come down? Those are things we may never fully know the answer to. Overall, Clinton is in the drivers’ seat going into the holidays, and I fully expect both campaigns to hit the ground running in January for the final stretch.
If you want to tell a simple story, you’re going to have to do some cherry picking. Then, your story is either that Sanders is close-ish but falling slightly or improving his numbers but REALLY far behind.
NATIONAL
DISCLAIMER: I don’t have a lot of faith in the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll, but they do occasionally release the daily results as well as their weekly releases, so I will include the numbers as they are available.
We have the five day averages from a few more days available from the poll today.
| 61 | 62 | 59 | 60 |
| 29 | 26 | 29 | 29 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| +32 | +36 | +30 | +31 |
For some more reference on the whirlwind adventure that is the Ipsos/Reuters Tracking poll, take a look at the fun roller coaster we’ve been on for the last month (while most polling showed a fairly stable race)
Over the last month, Clinton has ranged from 49-62% and Sanders has ranged from 26-37%Currently, Clinton is in one of the best stretches of support she’s had while Sanders is near his low point. What does that mean about the race? Probably nothing. Ipsos will do another “official” release tomorrow or Thursday. Expect it to show strong numbers for Clinton again, given what we’ve seen for the past five days.
THE AVERAGES
All numbers are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley
Iowa
RCP: 53-35-5 (Clinton +18)
Pollster: 52-37-5 (Clinton +15)
National (the aggregators do not include the daily results from Ipsos, so no updates today)