THE STATES
Nothing so far today from the states
NATIONAL
CNN/ORC
Clinton 58
Sanders 30
O’Malley 2
Interestingly enough, this particular poll also shows a pretty stable race over a long stretch of time. Their last poll, in mid October, found that Clinton led 56-33 (when Biden was excluded). So Clinton is up a notch, Sanders is down a bit, but neither of them with movement outside the margin of error.
Their poll from mid-September had Clinton leading a Biden-free race 57-28. CNN’s numbers have tended to be close to what most others are finding, and that is no different here. Folks who went for Biden over Hillary in previous polls may have represented her softer support, but so far none of her rivals have managed to take advantage of that.
Besides the swingy Ipsos/Reuters poll we discussed yesterday, the last few national polls have all showed a similar race.
| 58 | 30 | 28 |
| 51 | 36 | 15 |
| 60 | 30 | 30 |
| 58 | 30 | 28 |
| 59 | 32 | 27 |
| 54 | 34 | 20 |
| 57 | 32 | 25 |
THE AVERAGES
All numbers are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley
National:
RCP: 58-31-3
Pollster: 57-32-3
THE HISTORY
In November 4th 2007 (about two months before the Iowa Caucuses) the average of the five most recent polls was
National:
Clinton 45
Obama 22
Clinton is running about 12-13 points ahead of herself in 2007. Sanders is running about 9-10 points ahead of Obama. The biggest difference this time is the lack of undecided/other at this point. In 2007, Clinton was under 50, and a third of the electorate was undecided or supporting a candidate other than Obama or Clinton.
This year, Clinton is closer to 60 than 50, and there is just 11% of the electorate undecided or supporting a different candidate. Clearly, Clinton is in a much better position 60 days before the caucuses than she was 8 years ago.