This has been a slow couple of days for polling. There will be updates if anything else comes out, but since we’re coming off the holiday weekend there probably was not much in the field.
THE STATES
New Hampshire
Public Policy Polling
Clinton 44
Sanders 42
O’Malley 8
This poll shows some improvement for Bernie Sanders over their last poll, and matches the tight race that other pollsters have found.
PPP’s last poll in New Hampshire was from mid-October and showed an eight point lead for Clinton but included Biden at 11%. Without Biden, Clinton had a stronger 10 point lead. That was a reversal from their August poll that showed a seven point lead for Sanders and did not include Biden.
One interesting tidbit we’ve seen in this poll and at least a couple of others is that Biden actually hurt SANDERS worse in New Hampshire, as opposed to drawing support from Clinton everywhere else. Without Biden in the race, Sanders is +9, O’Malley is +4, and Clinton is +3.
New Hampshire’s open primary is the biggest factor keeping this race competitive- Clinton leads among Democrats by 9 and Sanders leads among Independents by 9. It will be interesting to see how the Democratic and Republican races are playing out, as Independents could be particularly drawn to one contest or the other when primary day comes around, and that could have a major impact on the race.
Sanders has a lead among Very Liberal voters (52-44) and an insignificant lead among young voters (41-39). Clinton leads among Somewhat Liberal voters (45-40) and Moderates (45-37). She has a huge lead among seniors (55-35).
There is somewhat of a strange gender gap, though not as pronounced as we’ve seen elsewhere and it benefits O’Malley. Clinton leads among women 45-44-5, and leads among men 43-39-11.
For the most part, PPP has been close to where most other pollsters have showed the race, though their last poll showed a bit stronger Clinton lead than others (8 points rather than around 4-5). There have been wide variations among the polls themselves where we’ve seen anything from a 21 point Clinton lead from Gravis to a 7 point Sanders lead from CBS/YouGov within about a week of each other.
We’ll have to watch the aggregates to make some sense of the wildly differing numbers, but it looks like a close race is still a close one in New Hampshire.
NATIONAL
Ipsos/Reuters
Clinton 51
Sanders 36
O’Malley 4
A pretty major shift from their last poll when Clinton lead 58-30 just a week ago, but this poll has been subject to fairly wild swings week to week.
They’ve released five polls since the beginning of November-
| 51 | 36 | 4 | +15 |
| 58 | 30 | 6 | +28 |
| 52 | 31 | 4 | +21 |
| 51 | 35 | 3 | +16 |
| 57 | 28 | 6 | +29 |
| 54 | 32 | 5 | +22 |
This is a significantly weaker number for Clinton than other recent polling has showed, and a bit better for Sanders. I don’t know if I buy that the race has been shifting by this much each week, but it is another piece of data to throw on the pile.
THE AVERAGES
All numbers are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley.
New Hampshire
RCP: 44-46-5
Pollster: 44-43-3
National
RCP: (does not yet include new poll)
Pollster: 56-33-4