THE STATES
Iowa
Iowa State University/WHO HD (11/2-11/15)
Clinton 50
Sanders 28
O’Malley 3
I included this poll in a late update on Wednesday, but figured we’d throw it in here for anyone who may have missed it over the weekend. Here is the commentary from Wednesday:
I haven’t been able to find a previous poll from them, but these numbers are in the area of where other pollsters have found for Hillary, but much worse for Sanders. Perhaps they are not pushing leaners, because the other polls released recently have 7%, 4%, 8% for undecided or other. This one has 19%. The poll itself points out that most people are engaged and paying attention and that the caucuses are less than two months away. It seems weird that they would be finding so many undecided voters at this point. We’ll have to see what happens going forward. Also, keep in mind that this poll was released recently, but it actually was in the field early in the month (and for nearly two weeks, a pretty long window)
So far, this poll is included in the Pollster average but not RCP.
NATIONAL
Quinnipiac
Clinton 60
Sanders 30
O’Malley 2
Pretty significant movement since their last poll released at the beginning of November. Clinton is up 7, Sanders is down 5, turning an 18 point margin in November into a 30 point margin heading into the holidays. In terms of their national primary numbers, Q has tended to be right in the midst of the polling herd, showing similar numbers to most other pollsters, and that remains true with these results.
Another important number reflects a trend we’ve seen in other national primary polling- Clinton’s support is significantly more committed than Sanders’s is. 62% of Clinton’s supporters have made up their minds, and just 37% might change them. Sanders’s support, on the other hand, is much softer. Just half are firm in their support and 49% might change their mind.
THE AVERAGES
All results are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley for races with updated polling
Iowa
RCP: 52-41-4 (Clinton +11)
Pollster: 54-36-4 (Clinton +18)
National
RCP: 58-30-4 (Clinton +28)
Pollster: 58-31-4 (Clinton +27)
THE HISTORY
All results are Clinton-Obama-Edwards(if available) for the five polls closest to 11/2/07 (two months before the Iowa caucuses)
Iowa 2007: 28-24-20 (Clinton +4)
National 2007: 45-24-13 (Clinton +21)
Clinton’s margin is about 7 points larger than it was in Iowa and nationally compared to November of 2007. Though Sanders is running about 19 points ahead of Obama was in Iowa and six points ahead of his national numbers, Clinton is outperforming herself in Iowa by 25% and nationally by 13%.
While the dynamics are clearly different than the 2008 nominating contest, it is clear that Clinton is in a much stronger position heading into the Iowa caucuses than she was eight years ago.