THE STATES
Iowa
Quinnipiac
Clinton 51 Sanders 42 O’Malley 4
We’ve had Iowa numbers from two of the polls that have consistently shown the worst numbers for Clinton in Iowa this week, but her 9 point margin here is essentially unchanged from her 11 point margin last time (51-40). It is a marked improvement from September when Sanders posted a one point lead in the Q poll. Like the YouGov poll earlier in the week, these polls are showing a much closer margin than other recent polling, but have also shown the same surge in support since September, with the numbers from October to November changing very little.
Clinton and Sanders are both about equal in the commitment of their supporters, which is a good thing for Sanders in that he has trailed on that margin in other polling, but also bad news because there are only 3% of voters undecided, and people’s views of the race are hardening. Both have about 2/3 of their support committed and 1/3 say they might change their mind.
Massachutsets
Suffolk/Boston Globe
Clinton 54
Sanders 29
O’Malley 3
Clinton’s 25 point lead here is right in line with the national numbers. That’s not terribly surprising for a state that hasn’t seen as much campaign action as the earliest states, but at this point in the race, that is an increasingly huge advantage for Clinton. Massachusetts votes on Super Tuesday which comes just three short days after South Carolina holds it’s Saturday contest, so there won’t be a lot of time for candidates coming off the first four races to make a huge mark there. Competing in Massachusetts at this point means devoting attention and resources away from the early contests that can make or break a campaign’s narrative, though not their delegate count.
These numbers are similar to an Emerson College poll taken in the middle of last month that had Clinton leading 59-25. The last time Suffolk poll here was in August of 2014, and Clinton led hometown hero Elizabeth Warren by a larger 38 point margin.
NATIONAL
YouGov/Economist- Registered Democrats
Clinton 64
Sanders 26
O’Malley 3
This poll shows fairly significant movement since their last poll two weeks ago. Clinton is up five, Sanders is down five, and this was a poll with a fairly large sample size, meaning a smaller margin of error. A ten point swing in two weeks is good news for Clinton heading into the campaigning lull of the holiday season. Clinton’s numbers in this poll have consistently been on the higher end of in line with other pollsters, so the fact that her 64% support here is a substantially higher than most other recent polling is something to keep an eye on. Their Sanders numbers have been consistently right in the middle of the pack of most other pollsters, and these numbers are a bit lower for him, too, so we’ll have to wait and see if they’ve got an outlier here or are picking up on some real movement before other pollsters.
YouGov/Economist- Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Clinton 54
Sanders 34
O’Malley 4
User KuchiKopi pointed out that YouGov has began including a likely voter screen this time around. We will include both this time, but going forward we will be looking at the likely voter screen. Obviously a fairly significant difference, as Sanders grows by 8 points and Clinton moves back by 10, for a 20 point lead rather than a 38 point lead. These numbers are a bit more in line with recent polling, though at the upper edge of Sanders’s support. This is likely due to the effect of Independent voters who can vote in open primaries and caucuses. This will actually be a crucial thing to watch going forward- if Sanders can keep the Democratic nomination looking competitive, he will likely be able to get more support from Independents. If, however, the Republican race is more competitive, we may see those folks decide to vote over there. An important dynamic to watch, particularly in New Hampshire.
Gravis Marketing/One America News
Clinton 59
Sanders 32
O’Malley 8
Gravis is a garbage pollster, and I will say that when I like their results and when I don’t. In the interest of as complete coverage as possible, though, I will include them whenever released (while saying every single time what a garbage pollster they are).
Now, these numbers are not terribly out of line with other national polling. Right above Clinton’s 58% in the polling average, right above Sanders 30% in the polling average. Obviously Gravis is seeing some serious O’Mentum, though, with O’Malley almost triple his 3% in the averages.
So, the numbers aren’t unbelievable- but the trendlines are. If a Sanders supporter wanted to spin these numbers, they could claim that Sanders is surging and that his support has DOUBLED in the last month… but then they’d have to accept that he was at 16% nationally just a few weeks ago. Basically, Gravis puts out polls that you can throw on the pile but that should never be taken at face value at any given time.
THE AVERAGES
In case anyone is interested, I will flesh out these diaries with the race as it stands in the polling averages. RCP uses a short window of time in deciding what polls to include, while Pollster includes everything as a running trend.
Pollster also tends to include polls that RCP does not, like some of the internet based polling from YouGov and SurveyMonkey.
All numbers are Clinton-Sanders-O’Malley
National
RCP: 56-30-4 (Clinton +26)
Pollster: 56-32-3 (Clinton +24)
Iowa
RCP: 52-41-4 (Clinton +11)
Pollster: 54-38-4 (Clinton +16)
New Hampshire
RCP: 45-41-4 (Clinton +4)
Pollster: 42-43-3 (Sanders +1)
Nevada
RCP: 53-26-0 (Clinton +27, only two polls included)
Pollster: Does not yet track Nevada
South Carolina
RCP: 71-21-3 (Clinton +50)
Pollster: 73-22-1 (Clinton +51)
Massachusetts
RCP: 57-27-3 (Clinton +30, only two polls included)
Pollster: Does not yet track Massachusetts
I’ll do the national numbers and the early states each day, plus any states that got an update. As we (hopefully) start to see a bit more Super Tuesday polling, I’ll start to include those races as well, since they come up three days after South Carolina
UPDATE 4PM CT
National
Ipsos/Reuters
Clinton 58
Sanders 30
O’Malley 6
Some movement from their last poll a week ago- Clinton is up 6, Sanders is down 1, O’Malley is up 2. That said, the sample size on this poll is a LOT smaller than we usually see from this poll. The last poll included nearly 1300 people for the Democratic primary race, the one before that was about 600. This poll has only 362 respondents for the Democratic race, giving it a MoE of 5.9%. In other words, I wouldn’t put a great deal of stock in any movement we see here. All that said, this is pretty well in line with the 57-32-4 race the polling aggregate shows.
UPDATE 4:30PM CT
Iowa
Iowa State University/WHO-HD
Clinton 50
Sanders 28
O’Malley 3
I haven’t been able to find a previous poll from them, but these numbers are in the area of where other pollsters have found for Hillary, but much worse for Sanders. Perhaps they are not pushing leaners, because the other polls released recently have 7%, 4%, 8% undecided or other. This one has 19%. The poll itself points out that most people are engaged and paying attention and that the caucuses are less than two months away. It seems weird that they would be finding so many undecided voters at this point. We’ll have to see what happens going forward