Presidential primaries are relatively low turnout affairs compared to the general election. Even the most exciting intra-party races get a fraction of the votes that contests between the nominees see.
Having committed and enthusiastic supporters is key to winning these races, and this Quinnipiac poll from New Jersey continues a recent trend in the polling showing that Clinton has a huge advantage when it comes to having support that is not just broad, but deep. Sanders’s support, on the other hand, appears fairly shallow.
For the Republicans, Trump continues to lead, and Carson’s second place showing is actually incredibly precarious due to some of the same dynamics we will examine in the Dem race.
While the New Jersey primary election will not be held until June, and will therefore likely have little impact on the nominating race itself, it can give us some insight into how the race might play out in other demographically diverse states and nationally.
First, the topline numbers:
Democrats
Clinton 56
Sanders 23
O’Malley 2
The Democratic numbers are not terribly different from the national picture at this point. Sanders is a bit lower than the mid twenties to low thirties he’s been seeing, while Clinton is right in line with the mid fifties she has been polling at for a while now. While Clinton likely benefits somewhat from the proximity of New York, O’Malley does not seem to see a similar effect though Maryland is also quite close by.
The interesting numbers are found in the poll’s crosstabs.
Clinton leads across the board in every subsection of the population tested, but the race is closer where we would expect given the state of polling elsewhere.
Ideologically, Sanders comes closest with Very Liberal voters, among whom Clinton’s lead is just 15%. Among Somewhat Liberal Democrats, Clinton leads by a whopping 42 points, and among Conservative Democrats, Clinton leads by a similar 37 points (though there are more undecideds in this group).
There is a huge 20 point gender gap- Clinton leads among men by just 22 points, but has a huge 42 point lead with women.
Unfortunately, race and age were not broken out in the nominating races for this poll, but the numbers suggest we’re likely to see similar dynamics we’ve seen elsewhere- Sanders is probably doing very well with young people, Clinton is probably dominating with retired voters, and Sanders is probably essentially a nonfactor with nonwhite voters.
The most interesting numbers of all are the two that directly relate to the commitment of the supporters the candidate has.
The conventional wisdom that Sanders’s core of support is committed to him while Clinton’s support is softer appears to be completely wrong.
Clinton voters are overwhelmingly committed to their candidate- 60% say their mind is made up, while just over a third, 37%, say they might change their mind. Sanders, on the other hand, is underwater here. A 55% majority of his supporters might change their minds, while just 45% are committed.
If we look at the race just among the supporters who are committed to their candidates, we see
Clinton 34
Sanders 10
One in three voters in New Jersey are already committed to supporting Clinton, while just one in ten say the same about Sanders. Of the 56% who still might change their minds, Sanders would need to take over 7 in ten voters to get himself to a bare majority.
By another measure, Clinton and Sanders are doing about equally well, though the breakdowns are once again telling. 11% of voters say they would not consider supporting each candidate.
For Clinton, this is largely because of a weakness with some conservative Democrats. While she leads with the group overall by a large margin, 17% would not consider supporting her. That is in stark contrast to the 7% of Somewhat Liberal voters who would not support her, and just 2% of Very Liberal voters who wouldn’t. 7% of women would not support Clinton, and 16% of men would not. The people who would not support Sanders are distributed a bit more equally.
10% of Very Liberal voters would not support him, 8% of Somewhat Liberal voters would not, and 13% of Conservative voters would not. The gender gap is not evident here, as 15% of men would not consider supporting Sanders and 8% of women would not, nearly identical to Clinton’s numbers.
Liberal voters are clearly quite comfortable with Clinton. If Sanders cannot paint her as an unacceptable choice for liberals, and right now 98% would consider voting for her, he would need to play to the nearly 1/5 conservative Democrats who won’t vote for her to pick up support.
O’Malley is not just suffering from being unknown or having less star power than the top two candidates- there is some antipathy, as well. 19% of Democrats would not consider supporting him- driven largely by the 23% of women who would not.
In the end, the story of the Democratic race is that Clinton’s support is broad and deep, while Sanders’s is clearly much narrower and quite shallow. We see some similar dynamics at play for the Republicans.
Republicans
Trump 31
Carson 16
Rubio 15
Christie 8
Cruz 7
Fiorina/Bush 4
Kasich 3
The rest received 1% or less
The biggest topline stories here are probably Trump’s continued dominance in the later states, Rubio’s ascension to a clear position in the top tier of candidates, Christie’s horrible showing in his home state, and Bush’s fade deeper into irrelevancy.
Looking a bit deeper, we see some interesting dynamics. The commitment levels of support for the three top candidates is the most interesting-
The conventional wisdom in the Republican race continues to hold: Trump’s supporters are committed, while the rest of the race remains fluid.
57% of Trump’s support is solid, while 43% might change their minds. Rubio can only count on 25% of his voters, while Ben Carson, who has been nipping at Trump’s heels nationally and in the early states, can only count on 14% of his voters’ support.
Among committed supporters, the race is
Trump 18
Rubio 4
Carson 2
Given the size of the Republican field and the relatively low level of support for the top tier candidates besides Trump, there’s obviously a lot more room for the candidates to move despite Trump’s large lead.
Across the ideological spectrum, Trump has large leads, as he does with men. Rubio’s weakness with Tea Party voters and Carson’s weakness with Somewhat Conservative voters tie them up at second place. Among women, though, Trump leads Carson by just 5 points.
The conventional wisdom once again holds in the “would not support” numbers, though there’s also (more) bad news for Bush here. While Trump has a strong, committed base of support, he also leads the field among candidates people would not consider supporting.
21% of Republicans would not consider supporting Trump for the nomination. Bush comes in a close second at 19%, with hometown “hero” Chris Christie and Rand Paul close behind at 18% and 17%, respectively.
Rubio does the best here- just 5% of Republicans say they would not support Rubio. Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina are the other candidates who are in single digits on this question.
The story here may be that Trump has maxed out his support but that they aren’t going anywhere unless he does. If the field remains large, his numbers may be strong enough to carry him through. If Republicans can coalesce around an alternative, however, he might be in trouble.