THE STATES
Iowa
NBC/WSJ/Marist (Fivethirtyeight rating B+)
Clinton 48
Sanders 45
O'Malley 5
This poll shows a closer race than most recent polls have, and is a definite improvement for Sanders over their poll in late September, where Clinton led 47-36. In the last three months they have Clinton up 1 and Sanders up 9. Daily Kos user Armando had a pretty interesting breakdown of the numbers on Twitter (@armandokos) that looks at the turnout expectations. It is worth a read (you have to scroll down a bit to find it), but suffice it to say that they’re expecting first time caucusers to make up 75% of the vote (smashing easily the 2008 numbers). Clinton leads among people who have participated in past caucuses by ten, and first timers by just two.
The electorate in this poll is also a majority male electorate, while 2008 saw 57% women. Clinton leads by 19 among women while Sanders leads by 11 among men.
Among registered voters, Clinton leads by a huge 53-38. Among non registered voters her lead is just four- and the projected electorate is made up of a majority of nonregistered voters.
Among Democrats, Clinton leads 56-37. Sanders leads 59-34 among Independents. The poll expects 30% Independents (compared to 20% in 2008).
If that is the electorate that turns out, then Bernie will certainly do well in Iowa. If that’s an unrealistic expectation, it is not a good sign for him that they didn’t find him leading even under extremely rosy turnout projections.
American Research Group (Fivethirtyeight rating C-)
Clinton 44
Sanders 47
O’Malley 3
ARG! is a garbage pollster about on the level of Gravis, but in the interest of fairness we will include them (and a national Gravis poll later on that we can safely ignore, as well!)
Anyways, ARG! finds something no other pollster has found since early September- a lead for Sanders. This is their first poll in Iowa, so we’ve got nothing to compare it to, but we can take a look at the rest of the contemporaneous polling and figure that when even NBC/WSJ can’t come up with a Sanders lead with their projected turnout it is hard to imagine what electorate ARG! is expecting or who they’re actually talking to. Throw it on the pile with the rest.
Public Policy Polling (Fivethirtyeightrating B)
Clinton 46
Sanders 40
O’Malley 8
Another big improvement for Sanders in the first state to weigh in. PPP was last in the state about a month ago, and they found Hillary leading 52-34. She’s down six, he’s up six making for a much closer race. This is another good pollster showing the race tightening dramatically, so I think it is safe to say that Sanders is closing strong in Iowa.
The good news for Clinton is that she has more committed supporters, and leads among those who have definitely made up their minds 53-39.
The bad news for Clinton is that O’Malley’s supporters are more likely to support Sanders, which will be key in precincts where he fails to reach 15% support and his supporters can choose a viable candidate in the second round.
The demographic divides are what we’ve seen elsewhere. Women support Clinton 52-36 but Sanders leads among men 46-39. Clinton has a huge lead with seniors, Sanders has a huge lead with younger voters, and Clinton’s lead with middle aged voters pretty much makes the difference in the final numbers.
Quinnipiac University (Fivethirtyeight rating B+)
Clinton 44
Sanders 49
O’Malley 4
Another great poll for Sanders, though Quinnipiac has been one of his friendlier pollsters throughout the cycle. Their last poll had Clinton up 51-40 about a month ago, so they have Clinton dropping 7 and Sanders up 9.
When everyone is showing the same thing, you can draw a pretty safe conclusion- Sanders is closing the gap in Iowa.
New Hampshire
NBC/WSJ/Marist (Fivethirtyeight rating B+)
Clinton 46
Sanders 50
O’Malley 1
This poll shows an improvement for Clinton in New Hampshire since the last poll released at the end of September, when Sanders led by 9 points at 48-39. Sanders is up two and Clinton is up 7.
Here they find a slightly more traditional electorate- 89% of likely voters have voted before. Most troubling for Sanders is that Independents are more interested in the Republican race at this point. 47% plan to participate in that primary while just 32% plan to participate in the Dem primary. Clinton leads Sanders 55-40 among Democrats, but his lead among Independents is 56-29 and keeps him in the lead. If Independents don’t show up for Sanders on election day because they find the Republican race more interesting, it could be a surprisingly bad night for him.
FOX News (Fivethirtyeight rating B)
Clinton 37
Sanders 50
O’Malley 3
FOX is clearly feeling the Bern in New Hampshire, seeing a huge drop in Hillary’s support over their last poll from mid November. Since that time they have Hillary down seven points while Sanders has gained five.
FOX combines the efforts of a Republican and Democratic pollster and usually does pretty good work.
Interestingly, FOX released Republican polls for Iowa and New Hampshire and only New Hampshire for Democrats. Not sure why that is, but we can hope that the Iowa results they found didn’t fit the hope that FOX News Republicans have of seeing Bernie nominated.
American Research Group (Fivethirtyeight rating C-)
Clinton 44
Sanders 47
O’Malley 3
ARG! heads into New Hampshire and finds… the exact same results that they do in Iowa. This is actually their second poll in New Hampshire, and they have flipped from a three point race in Clinton’s favor near the end of December to a three point race for Sanders today. Neither one is a result far outside of what we’re seeing elsewhere, but it seems really strange, to say the least, that they would find Iowa and New Hampshire in the exact same place. Given their reputation, I wouldn’t be surprised if the dog ate their Iowa results so they just published the same thing twice.
Monmouth University (Fivethirtyeight rating A-)
Clinton 39
Sanders 53
O’Malley 5
Monmouth is a pretty good pollster, and they find a huge bump for Sanders in New Hampshire. In their last poll Clinton led by 3, 48-45, in early November. Since then they have Sanders up 8 and Clinton falling 9 for a big swing on the margin. This is pretty similar to the FOX poll, so it is possible that Bernie is seeing real movement in New Hampshire and starting to lock up support.
We’ll have to see a couple more polls that show something other than a close race, but these numbers have to have Sanders feeling good.
NATIONAL
NBC/SurveyMonkey (unrated by fivethirtyeight)
Clinton 52
Sanders 37
O’Malley 2
The race here looks steady over the last week, when Clinton led 53-36. A fifteen point lead matches the 16 point lead she holds in the aggregate right now.
Gravis/One America News (Fivethirtyeight rating C)
Clinton 65
Sanders 26
O’Malley 9
It is Gravis, so who really cares, but they show Clinton a lot higher than other pollsters, Sanders a lot lower, and O’Malley a lot higher (relative to his overall support, anyways).
If anyone cares what Gravis has to say, this is an improvement for Clinton over their last poll from early December when Clinton led 62-30.
IDB/TIPP (Fivethirtyeight rating B)
Clinton 43
Sanders 39
O’Malley 2
Though this is a generally decent pollster, these results seem a bit… strange. Not only is the margin dramatically closer than any other poll we’ve seen nationally, there is something else going down.
Their last poll had Clinton leading 51-33 at the beginning of December. That means that in the last month, undecideds have stayed essentially the same, and all of Sanders’s gains came at Clinton’s expense. It seems unlikely that we would see such a dramatic move away among Clinton supporters but not see the same thing happening with undecided voters. We’ll have to see if any other polls show a race this close otherwise this has to be treated as an outlier in a major way.
THE AVERAGES
Iowa
RCP: 45-45-5 (Tie)
Pollster: 47-43-5 (Clinton +4)
New Hampshire
RCP: 49-43-3 (Sanders +6)
Pollster: 50-44-3 (Sanders +6)
National RCP: 48-36-4 (Clinton +12)
Pollster: 54-38-3 (Clinton +16)
Overall:
Sanders is definitely making a move. Whether it will be enough to take Iowa is the first big question. Whether he can see that support translate beyond New Hampshire into more diverse states is the second one.
The expectations game is the other factor to keep an eye on. Instead of a comfortable win in Iowa, now folks are expecting a close race. If Clinton wins she doesn’t have to have a huge win in order to portray it as good news.
By the same token New Hampshire is either very close or a Bernie blowout depending on what poll you want to believe. If Clinton can pull out a win there or keep it close she can spin that into a comeback narrative in the state.
Nevada is almost never polled and we haven’t seen anything out of South Carolina in a while, so the next thing to watch is if Sanders has managed to make significant inroads in his support with people of color.