I’m going to make a (maybe) bold prediction, and I’ll be proven right or wrong in just a few hours. Tonight, in his livestream to supporters, Bernie Sanders will concede the nomination and pledge to help her defeat Donald Trump in the fall.
It won’t be particularly enthusiastic. It will be couched in language about some of their disagreements on issues. He will pledge to bring his ideas to the convention, he will have some demands about process and reform, and he will insist that his name be placed for nomination and his delegates be heard in a full roll call vote.
But he’s not going to continue to pretend he is contesting the nomination. There are a number of reasons for this, some noble, some self-serving, but they ALL point to the same outcome. The alternatives for him are few, and none of them are pretty for his movement or himself personally.
Leverage
Bernie is surely figuring out by now that each passing day without an endorsement diminishes, not increases, his leverage. As everyone moves on to the general election without him, the value of his support lessens, particularly as we see the party coalescing behind Clinton without him and her leading Trump pretty comfortably.
He’s losing allies, too. His sole colleague in the Senate to endorse him, Jeff Merkley, says Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Raul Grivjala has acknowledged that Hillary is the nominee. MoveOn has moved on. The CWA union is now supporting Hillary. The AFL-CIO was waiting for the primary to be over- and it is over. They endorsed today. The most important Democrats have come off the sidelines- Hillary has the President, Vice President, First Lady, and Senator Warren on her side. The progressive movement and Democratic voters are uniting behind Hillary Clinton.
As her standing improves, as people no longer take him seriously as a candidate, the more he is viewed as a sore loser or someone dishonestly or delusionally claiming a path to the nomination, the less important his support becomes.
His greatest leverage comes with his support, not withholding it any longer. And Bernie is smart enough to figure that out.
Language
Bernie has already been softening the ground for this kind of landing. He hasn’t been talking about the nomination, or flipping superdelegates, etc. very much, if at all, since California. He has all-but conceded the race in the words he is using, but giving himself enough wiggle room so supporters continue to hold out some hope (and donate more money). He is now talking about taking his IDEAS to the convention, not the nomination fight. He is talking about how it isn’t about one person or the Presidency alone but about the movement and the issues he talks about. He talks about how he will do everything possible to defeat Donald Trump.
He is even making demands in exchange for his support. That isn’t something the winner does. He has said everything a losing candidate says EXCEPT acknowledging the winner and congratulating her. He is not talking like someone who intends to be the nominee. He is talking like someone who knows he will not but can’t quite bring himself to acknowledge it yet.
The Medium
I think the fact that we’re seeing a livestream from Bernie is very, very telling as to his intentions. Why a livestream? If he has a “major announcement” whether that be that he intends to concede or intends to fight, it will be covered by the news. The livestream isn’t some extra-efficient way to get his message out to the largest number of people. If he truly intended to be the nominee, it would make a lot more sense to show up in Ohio or something in front of a huge crowd. If he thought there was any possibility of being a general election candidate, he would be getting that process started now.
I think the real issue is that he knows that the reaction of his supporters is unlikely to be positive initially. His supporters boo and jeer the mention of Hillary’s name at his rallies. They chant “Bernie or Bust!” and other unhelpful things. Bernie knows that this would make for bad television. His options may be a well-produced video or him being shouted down by his own supporters on a stage. That’s not good for him or for Clinton. He’s not having a huge rally because he doesn’t intend to be the nominee so there is no sensible place to have one, and because he wants to be able to control the optics of a concession as much as possible.
Ahh, you say, but he may not even have the money to stage large events like that at this point! That brings us to another factor-
The Money
We don’t know the current financial state of the Sanders campaign, but we can reasonably assume that it is not pretty. They saw a HUGE donation dropoff in April, and had a major spending problem- they went into May with less than six million cash on hand. Their May numbers are almost certainly worse. For the first time Sanders did not release his fundraising numbers on the first of the month.
In the past, he has released the amount raised, and generally the amount of cash on hand, right away. In May, we had to wait until the deadline on the 20th to see his spending and cash on hand. For June, we’ve got nothing. That means that the amount he raised, to say nothing of how much he spent and has remaining, was very bad- something he did not want out before California voted.
We can deduce more about this given the anemic spending even in places like California. He has laid off half his staff even as Clinton continues to hire around the country. Even some senior staffers are griping to the media about the campaign. These are all signs of a campaign in financial trouble.
There is a deadline involved here. Sanders has until Monday before these numbers are publicly released. Money talks, and Sanders has consistently made his fundraising one of the biggest signs of the viability of his candidacy. If he remains a candidate for the Presidency after this weekend he will be facing serious questions even as people stop taking him seriously. How is he going to build an infrastructure for the general election? How is he going to take advantage of the summer to define Trump and get his message out to the broader electorate who doesn’t give a shit about primaries and has no idea who he is? If May was this bad, how bad has June been so far? Will you release your full financials on July 1st?
If Bernie concedes tonight, none of these questions will matter. No one will care that he didn’t do well in May or June. If he is still acting like he might be the nominee, his money troubles will be front and center.
The Legacy
Bernie says he wants to build an enduring movement that is about issues he cares about and not his personal ambitions. That does not jibe with remaining a candidate in a race that you’ve been mathematically eliminated from.
To build that movement, he needs to build relationships, not burn bridges. He needs to have influence over the President, not her disdain. He needs to be talking about issues that affect the American people, not griping and obsessing over why he might have lost the nomination.
If Bernie’s Presidential candidacy culminates in ugly behavior at the convention no one will care about him unless Trump manages to win- and they won’t be thinking about him for good reasons.
If it culminates in him moving the party platform left, returning to the Senate with increased influence among his peers and a national microphone to speak to his supporters, he has a real opportunity to make changes and build something that survives his political career.
Being a sore loser won’t build a movement- at least not one that is about anything but himself. That’s why tonight he is going to talk about how the fight for his issues goes on.
If primary election reform is something that is truly important to him beyond his own run, he can activate his supporters in closed primary states to elect legislatures and governors who agree with him. If he cares about college debt and health care improvements, he will have the opportunity to introduce actual legislation that is designed to make changes not win votes. He can summon people to make calls to their legislators. He can get on a television screen whenever he likes. He can act as a conscience in the Senate and people will listen.
None of that hinges on him remaining a candidate after he’s already lost. Much of it hinges on him NOT doing that.
Will Bernie Sanders be remembered as someone who built a political movement that shaped the next generation of Democrats or a sore loser who didn’t know when it was over? Will he continue to burn brightly or fade away as fewer and fewer people pay any attention to him?
Bernie
If Bernie continues to be a candidate, it will also be a horrible time for him on a personal level- now and in the future. He will lose respect from his colleagues. The crowds won’t always be there. He will be remembered poorly if he is remembered at all. He could be blamed for helping Trump. He could be blamed for chaos and violence at the convention. He could be remembered as someone who couldn’t lead his followers, who unleashed something he couldn’t control.
The questions he faces from the media will be humiliating. People will be moving on without him. He won’t get a decent speaking slot at the convention, his megaphone will turn into a kazoo.
He will be a joke. The things comedians and sketch shows will say about him will be brutal. If he does, indeed, try and actually be nominated at the convention, he will lose in an embarrassing defeat by about 1000 delegates on the first ballot on national television.
He’ll return to the Senate a pariah. Somewhat ironically, he will be the 1%- a sole Senator standing alone with no allies, no influence, no ability to make change.
Bernie doesn’t want that. He’s smart enough to know he has nothing to gain from it. He’s not going to put himself through it.
Bottom Line
None of Bernie’s interests are served by fighting for the nomination through the convention. He can, though, do a lot of good by acknowledging that he will not be the nominee but making the argument that his ideas are bigger than any President, that he will continue to fight for those ideas. He can acknowledge that his supporters voted for principles, not a man, and he wants to respect those votes by influencing the party around the ideals he fights for, but not fighting for a nomination that he lost.
In a few hours, we’ll know what Bernie’s thinking is like. I’m pretty confident he’s a smart enough guy to realize what is at stake. He’s been moving in the right direction despite a few missteps. Despite the protestations of his campaign, Bernie Sanders for President will end tonight. His campaign for his ideas, however, will not. That’s what he’s taking to the convention. That’s what the movement he wants to build should be about.